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This cost overestimation matters. In many energy system models, these inflated costs make solar PV look less competitive than fossil fuels, leading to more conservative policy pathways and underinvestment in grid integration and storage. The same is true for battery energy storage, where today's costs are already lower than most 2030 projections.
Cost projections for solar photovoltaics, wind power, and batteries are over-estimating actual costs globally ”, published in Applied Energy, systematically reviewed 40 studies and 150 long-term scenarios for renewable energy technologies.
It compared their projected costs (all inflation-adjusted to 2023 USD) with real-world market data and found a consistent trend: cost projections are too pessimistic. Solar PV and battery costs are dropping faster than a rock For solar PV, the backbone of the energy transition, the gap between projected and real costs is particularly striking.
For solar PV, the backbone of the energy transition, the gap between projected and real costs is particularly striking. Most studies estimate that utility-scale PV will cost between $160-630 per kW by 2050. However, today's global average is already around $500 per kW, and can be even lower as documented by the latest Trends Report from IEA-PVPS.
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